Texas A&M Economic Report Supports Recovery Efforts After Central Texas Floods
Analysis from the Hazard Reduction and Recovery Center helps Kerr Together uncover hidden business impacts and strengthen the case for long-term recovery support.
Severe flooding in July 2025 across Central Texas damaged infrastructure. Photo by TXDPS via Kerr Together.
When floodwaters tore through Central Texas over the July 4, 2025, weekend, the devastation was immediate. But even months later, some of the disaster’s economic impacts remain harder to see, especially in the data that leaders rely on to plan recovery.
To understand what recovery would require, Kerr Together partnered with Texas A&M University’s Hazard Reduction and Recovery Center.
Working with Kerr Together’s Long-Term Recovery Group, faculty from the College of Architecture used economic analysis and disaster recovery expertise to uncover impacts that were not always obvious in topline indicators, including reduced work hours, weaker customer traffic and long-term business strain.
A new report from the HRRC estimates that flood-related disruptions to summer camps and tourism could put dozens to hundreds of jobs at risk in Kerr and Kendall Counties in 2026. The findings give community leaders evidence to support funding requests and plan for the next stage of recovery.
Prepared by Dr. Laura Schmahmann, assistant professor in the Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, and Dr. Michelle Meyer, associate professor in the department and director of the HRRC, the report reflects the center’s role in helping communities make sense of complex recovery challenges.
“The HRRC exists to bridge the gap between faculty expertise and the real-world needs of disaster-stricken communities,” Meyer said. “Because recovery planning and aid applications require precise data, Dr. Schmahmann and I combined our strengths in economic planning and disaster recovery to provide Kerr Together with immediate, usable results.”
Schmahmann said Kerr Together sought support because recovery funding depends on evidence-based analysis. “In order to apply for funding, they need to have some sort of evidence base of what the flood impacts are,” she said.
Underemployment and the Hidden Strain
One of the report’s key findings is that common economic indicators can be misleading in the months following a disaster.
Some of the numbers the team reviewed — including sales tax activity, tourism data and unemployment figures — did not show a clear negative impact on their own. “That data doesn’t tell the whole story,” Schmahmann explained.
In the months after the flood, sales tax allocations and hotel occupancy tax collections in Kerr County appeared broadly in line with previous years, but those figures may have been temporarily boosted by recovery-related spending, displaced residents using lodging and volunteers assisting with recovery efforts.
At the same time, conversations with business owners revealed a more fragile reality. Some employers have kept workers on payroll while drastically reducing their hours.
“There might be people still employed, but they’re working five to 10 hours instead of 20 to 40,” Schmahmann said.
The effects of underemployment can ripple through a local economy. When workers in the area bring home less income, they spend less at other local businesses. When summer camps and tourism slow down, the effects can spread to restaurants, retailers and service providers across the area.
Helping Leaders Plan for Continued Impacts
The analysis focuses on two major drivers of the economies of Kerr and Kendall Counties: summer camps and tourism.
“The area is heavily oriented around the river,” Schmahmann said. “It is a seasonal economy, and summer is the prominent time. A lot of businesses survive based on the income they receive in three months of the year.”
The report notes that Kerr County had just over 15,000 jobs in 2024, with large shares concentrated in industries such as retail trade, accommodation and food service, and construction, which are highly sensitive to changes in visitor spending and local consumer activity.
Because the full effects of the flood are expected to become clearer in the summer, the HRRC team modeled a range of possible outcomes to help local leaders prepare. Due to available data, those detailed scenario estimates apply to Kerr County, though the broader recovery effort serves both Kerr and Kendall counties.
In the report’s 2026 scenarios, reduced summer camp operations could put an estimated 98 to 199 jobs at risk. A decline in overnight visitation could put another 36 to 144 jobs at risk, depending on the severity of the drop.
Schmahmann emphasized that these are not predictions, but planning tools designed to help leaders understand possible outcomes and communicate the scale of need.
Recovery is About More Than Reopening
The business survey data described in the report show why planning matters. Kerr Together conducted a six-month follow-up survey that collected data from 202 local businesses, and 66% reported ongoing effects from the disaster.
Even among businesses that described themselves as fully open, 55% reported ongoing flood-related issues.
For many of those businesses, the challenge is no longer simply reopening. It is bringing customers back. Among businesses still facing ongoing issues, the most common concerns were lower sales, reduced revenue and weaker customer traffic.
Limited insurance coverage is also another major barrier to recovery. “The thing that we found the most surprising was the number of businesses that didn’t have insurance,” Schmahmann said.
According to a Texas Division of Emergency Management damage assessment cited in the report, only about 27% of surveyed businesses in the area reported having insurance.
Without insurance, many owners are relying on savings, grants, loans or other short-term strategies to keep going. The report shared anecdotal evidence that some businesses are retaining employees while cutting work hours to reduce costs.
Schmahmann said those strategies may help businesses survive in the short term, but they are not a lasting solution. “Even if the numbers don’t look that bad now, we think in the long term, without support, it’s going to get worse,” she added.
Faculty Expertise in Service to Texas Communities
Kerr Together reached out to Texas A&M through the HRRC as community leaders began developing a recovery plan and pursuing funding to rebuild. Schmahmann and Meyer then volunteered to help lead the report.
The report itself received no direct funding support, but was made possible through faculty time from the HRRC and Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning.
“At the heart of the HRRC’s work is the Aggie core value of selfless service,” Meyer said. “When a Texas community affected by disaster asked for support, there was no question — we were going to find a way to help.”
Schmahmann said this type of analysis can fill an important gap for communities that need technical evidence but may not have the capacity to produce it themselves. “A lot of these communities don’t have the capacity to take on this analysis,” she said.
The report is already being used to strengthen grant and funding applications for Kerr and Kendall Counties’ long-term recovery and to help share the economic impacts that are still unfolding.
It may also serve as a baseline for future research, especially after the summer season, when the full impacts of changes to summer camp operations and tourism visitation on the local economy become clearer.
“Good data is essential for understanding the true scope of disaster impacts and making the right moves to put lives and businesses back together,” said Chris Hughes, Business Recovery Working Group co-chair for Kerr Together. “This analysis provides the evidence our community needs to target recovery resources effectively and advocate for the support we need for a complete recovery.”